Starlink’s Victory Lap, Amazon’s Sprint, and GEOs Crashing: The Divergent Realities Satellite Broadband

Executive Summary

December 1, 2025: The satellite market is Starlink’s to lose. Amazon with its LEO service is in a challenger position. Although AST Space Mobile is playing in the D2C market, as of today it lacks the double threat of home internet capability that Starlink and Amazon bring to the table. Starlink and Amazon have also won over 20% of all Bead program locations, which further boosts their respective fortunes, BEAD locations are the hardest and therefore most expensive locations to provide internet to, making both companies the likely sole provider of high-speed internet to these customers and their broadband spend. As population density increases, first fixed-wireless access (FWA) and then fiber as well as cable become more efficient and capable solutions at lower price points, limiting the appeal and reach for satellite broadband.

This report chronicles the changes and shifting fortunes in the United States broadband market based on proprietary survey data from 2022 to November 2025 covering over 1,001, 590 broadband customers. Yes, that’s over 1 million people.

Table of Contents

1. Chapter 1: Market Overview 2
2. Chapter 2: Political & Regulatory Landscape 6
3. Chapter 3: Starlink Deep Dive 10
4. Chapter 4: Amazon Leo Deep Dive 13
5. Chapter 5: AST SpaceMobile Deep Dive 19
6. Chapter 6: Legacy GEO and Competitors 24
7. Chapter 7: BEAD and Geographic Competition 28
8. Chapter 8: Terrestrial Competition 33
9. Chapter 9: Enterprise & Vertical Markets 37
10. Chapter 10: Bundling & Pricing Dynamics 43
11. Chapter 11: Financial Forecasting 47
12. Chapter 12: M&A Landscape 52
13. Chapter 13: Strategic Implications 57
14. Chapter 14: Conclusion 62