BOSTON, MA (September 7, 2026): As per Recon Analytics’ annual iPhone pre-launch survey of the U.S. consumers, 62% of intended iPhone 18 base model buyers would upgrade to iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max or Fold if Apple Skips the iPhone 18 base model during the fall event on September 9, 2026. The survey shows no base model launch would not cost Apple the sale volumes. In fact, it would help Apple upsell the “Pro” models lifting the consumer base to higher ASP models.
Among the respondents who planned to buy the iPhone 18, a follow-up question asked what they would do if that model is not launched in September 2026, 39.1% said they would buy the Pro instead and 14.1% would jump to the Pro Max, and 8.5% would take the Fold instead, making the combined 61.7% trading up rather than delaying their purchase. On the other hand, 23.9% would simply wait for the base model launch, and 9.3% would fall back to last year’s iPhone 17. Brand-defection to other Android brands’ risk is close to non-existent with 1.5% of this subgroup said they would switch to another brand.
“Apple’s move to launch ‘Pro and Fold’ models only during the Fall event will help Apple shift its model mix further to premium models lifting its ASP. In key markets like USA and China, the ‘Pro Max’ outsells ‘Pro’ model during the launch cycle, but in case of no base model, ‘Pro’ is likely to gain significant share of base model users. While iPhone Fold remains the center of attention, we expect the model to account for only a fraction of overall sales volume.”
— Hanish Bhatia, Vice President, Device Intelligence Group
Source: Recon Analytics’ Annual iPhone Pre-Launch Survey
When it comes to overall interest during the last three launch cycles, 20.2% respondents said they plan to buy an iPhone 18, up from 14.9% during the iPhone 17 launch cycle, but still down from 26.1% during the iPhone 16 launch cycle. While the overall interest is higher compared to last year, the sales volumes during the launch cycle remains a factor of availability and launch timings. We expect the sales volume to be lower this year as device prices and economic uncertainty increase and subsidies decrease leading to more consumers holding on to their existing devices. However, the shift in overall mix will lead to higher Pro and Pro Max sales.
When it comes to model mix, the premium shift that opened with the iPhone 17 series has held into the iPhone 18 with 68.5% of buyers choosing a Pro or Pro Max model this year, essentially unchanged from the iPhone 17 and well above the iPhone 16’s 47.7%. This highlights the continued consumer appetite for premium “pro” series iPhone models.
“While the consumer enthusiasm remains high for the iPhone 18 launch, US carriers are taking a more targeted approach when it comes to device subsidies. While the top line subsidy figures continue to increase, fewer high value consumers are eligible to take the full benefit of the carrier promotions. Therefore, we expect overall device sales to be marginally lower this year.”
— XJ Wang, Analyst and Director, Device Intelligence Group
Source: Recon Analytics Annual iPhone Pre-Launch Survey
Annual iPhone Pre-Launch Survey Summary:
Recon Analytics surveyed 8,897 U.S. consumers ahead of the iPhone 18 launch, 6,884 ahead of the iPhone 17, and 7,256 ahead of the iPhone 16, using an identical tracking question each cycle to enable a clean generation-over-generation comparison.
For paid version of the full report including consumer demographics and carrier preference, please reach out to [email protected]
About Recon Analytics:
Recon Analytics is an analyst firm serving the technology, telecommunications, AI, and Airline industries, combining large-scale proprietary consumer surveys with public and financial data to deliver independent, data-driven market intelligence. Recon Analytics’ Device Intelligence Group, covers global smartphone shipments and sell-through, supply chain analysis, bill-of-materials teardowns, component-level demand across smartphones, PCs, tablets, wearables, XR, as well as the consumer device purchase journey. Visit us at: Device Intelligence – Recon Analytics
Media Contact:
Hanish Bhatia, Vice President, [email protected]
XJ Wang, Analyst & Director, [email protected]